Top House Seats to Change Hands in 2014 - Part 3

It's Marx vs. Conservatism

If the Democrats win the House plan on the US becoming

a one-party People's Republic like Venezuela

Democrats look very unlikely to pick up the 17 seats they would need to retake the House majority, and they could lose seats. 

At the six year mark for an incumbent President the opposition party has picked up 30 seats on average in the House.  From my viewpoint that projection is too high for 2014.  I think a 20 seat GOP pick up in closer.

Here are ten congressional districts most likely to flip from one party to the other this November according to the National Journal.

See our previous stories for districts one to ten and for districts 11 to 20.

Here are districts 21 to 30 likely to flip.


21. Illinois-12—Rep. Bill Enyart (D) is running for reelection
Culturally, this downstate seat—bordered by Kentucky to the south and Missouri to the west—looks a lot like the type of Democratic district Republicans have flat-out assimilated, Borg-like, over the past few years, though Democrats still maintain a slight generic edge here. Enyart won his freshman term more easily than Republicans were expecting, though they think state Rep. Mike Bost could give him a run for his money.

22. Georgia-12—Rep. John Barrow (D) is running for reelection
Barrow ran a flawless 2012 campaign against a flawed opponent—and he still won with just under 54 percent. Such is life for the last remaining House Democrat in the Deep South. Romney won the seat by 12 percentage points, and Barrow's ceiling is too low for comfort no matter how much even House GOP strategists grudgingly praise his political survival instincts. Republican Rick Allen's deep pockets could play a role here.

GOP Congressman David Valadao won in a nearly impossible
deep blue California district.
Valadao for Congress.com

23. California-21—Rep. David Valadao (R) is running for reelection
By presidential performance, this is the second-bluest seat held by a House Republican, so the relatively untested Valadao has to look over his shoulder a bit. But those numbers also obscure some major issues for Democrats in the Central Valley. Former Senate staffer Amanda Renteria has Democrats excited and may prove to be a strong campaigner, but her party just lost a 2013 state Senate special election in a district that largely overlapped with the 21st.

24. New York-19—Rep. Chris Gibson (R) is running for reelection
Gibson has proven a great electoral fit for the district, even as Obama carried the Hudson Valley seat in 2012, but investor Sean Eldridge (who is married to Facebook cofounder Chris Hughes) brings connections and cash to bear on the race, which has Republicans nervous. They've already begun savaging Eldridge as a carpetbagger out of touch with the median voter, while preemptively wincing at what might happen in an expensive race. Democrats tried and failed in 2012 to convince area voters that they should support a Democrat for Congress if they were going to support Obama; that will an important page in the playbook again in 2014.

U.S. Army Colonel Joe Heck won his Las Vegas, Nevada seat in 2010 by a narrow margin.  He was re-elected in 2012 with only 50.4% of the vote.  Without patriots like Colonel Heck winning is tough seats the Marxists would have total control of our government.
Heck 4 Nevada.com 

Nevada's 3rd congressional district election, 2010
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Joe Heck	128,916	48.13%
	Democratic	Dina Titus (inc.)	127,168	47.47%
	Independent	Barri Michaels	6,473	2.42%
	Libertarian	Joseph P. Silvestri	4,026	1.50%
	Independent American	Scott David Narter	1,291	0.48%
Totals			267,874	100.00%
	Republican gain from Democratic

 

25. Nevada-03—Rep. Joe Heck (R) is running for reelection
Heck beat back a Democratic challenge in 2012 rather easily considering the seat's narrow lean for Obama, and Democrat Erin Bilbray might be a tougher matchup when all is said and done. The big issue in this race so far has been immigration. Heck has endorsed a pathway to citizenship, but he has opposed the bipartisan Senate bill for comprehensive reform, and the biggest immigration vote he took in 2013 was one to defund Obama's executive Dream Act-style program. Bilbray has had trouble landing punches on the issue, but Heck could be a gauge of how immigration reform affects Republican prospects in diverse districts.

26. Illinois-10—Rep. Brad Schneider (D) is running for reelection
Democrats finally captured this district in 2012, when it was the bluest GOP-held seat in the country, after years of failed efforts. That type of seat often stays put once it finally flips, but former Rep. Bob Dold proved himself to be a reasonable Republican fit there last term and can run against Congress now, instead of as part of it. Illinois Democrats and Florida Republicans may have a similar worry this cycle: Keep an eye out for whether unpopular Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn suppresses enthusiasm for Schneider north of Chicago.

27. Pennsylvania-08—Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) is running for reelection
Fitzpatrick's easy victory last cycle means that Democrats' first-time candidates have to prove they can make the seat competitive, though its another district that split between Obama and a GOP congressman. This is another state where Democrats hope an unpopular governor (Tom Corbett) drags down Republican performance down-ticket.



GOP Rep. Michael Grimm
This former Marine won a New York City
seat by a narrow 52% - 47% margin.
Grimm for Congress

28. New Hampshire-02—Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) is running for reelection
Kuster/span> has only been in politics for a few years, but she has already accumulated a startling record of public gaffes, including grabbing a camera from a tracker, trying to grab the microphone from then-Rep. Charles Bass during a debate in 2012, and, most recently, dismissing a series of aggressive questions at a town-hall meeting. The district is Democratic-leaning—Kuster barely lost in 2010 despite that year's Republican wave—but it is not immune to the nation's political swings, and Kuster may prove to be a liability to herself. A small-sample poll from WMUR last October showed her unfavorability higher than her favorability rating, in contrast to her in-state Democratic colleague Shea-Porter, who represents a less friendly district.

29. New York-11—Rep. Michael Grimm (R) is running for reelection
Democrats' latest challenge to Grimm will be better-funded than their last, thanks to former New York City Councilor Domenic Recchia's connections, and the race looks set to be nastier, too, with Recchia and Grimm already going back and forth raising ethical issues about each other. Recchia is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, but Democrats are betting he can still make a stronger push there even as Grimm argues he's more in tune with the district. This is one of just a handful of districts where Obama improved on his 2008 showing last election, though it's hard to say how much of that might have been a temporary effect of Hurricane Sandy.

30. Texas-23—Rep. Pete Gallego (D) is running for reelection
As with some previous districts, the numbers—including a Romney win here in 2012—dictate that Gallego stay on the watch list. But the NRCC quietly kept recruiting in this vast West Texas district after all three Republican candidates were already running, which sends a frank message about how the GOP views their prospects. Part of the problem: Former Rep. Quico Canseco, the best-known of the three Republican contenders, was savaged by Democratic ads last cycle, with lingering results on public opinion.


For the full story go to The National Journal.

Top House Seats to Change Hands in 2014

It's Marx vs. Conservatism

If the Democrats win the House plan on the US becoming

a one-party People's Republic like Venezuela

Democrats look very unlikely to pick up the 17 seats they would need to retake the House majority, and they could lose seats. 

At the six year mark for an incumbent President the opposition party has picked up 30 seats on average in the House.  From my viewpoint that projection is too high for 2014.  I think a 20 seat GOP pick up in closer.

Here are ten congressional districts most likely to flip from one party to the other this November according to the National Journal.

Here are districts 11 to 20 likely to flip.  See our previous story for districts one to ten.


11. California-52—Rep. Scott Peters (D) is running for reelection
No serious Republican congressional candidate has drawn more attention for breaking the mold: Former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, who is openly gay, has also openly called for his party to deemphasize social issues and focus on pocketbook matters. Democrats successfully tagged DeMaio as over-conservative in his losing 2012 mayoral race, but both he and Peters have crossover appeal. A neat map from KPBS shows about two-thirds of Peters precincts also going for DeMaio where their races overlapped in 2012.

A Gay Conservative Republican for Congress
in San Diego.
Carl DeMaio for Congress

12. New Hampshire-01—Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) is running for reelection
This seat has switched parties three times in four elections, moving with the volatile national mood over that time. That's what gives Republicans their best chance to retake a seat in New England, where Shea-Porter and Democrats shut them out in 2012. Former Rep. Frank Guinta is running again and starts with a big name-ID edge for the Republican nomination, but recent polling suggests he's still bruised from the last election, which could be a liability. District voters gave Shea-Porter much stronger marks in the same survey.

13. Colorado-06—Rep. Mike Coffman (R) is running for reelection
Coffman took over from ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo when he joined Congress, but Coffman has had to execute something of a political reinvention on issues like immigration since his district was redrawn into a swing seat last cycle, when he barely won reelection. Democrat Andrew Romanoff, the former state House speaker, has been running against Coffman for nearly 12 months already, though he may regret not chasing the seat in a presidential year. (Obama carried this district in 2012.) Given the district dynamics, Coffman and Romanoff's gangbusters fundraising pace (over $1.5 million each after the first three quarters of last year), the size of the Denver media market, and the high-profile statewide races also on tap for the fall of 2014, this is a solid early bet to be the nation's most expensive House race this year.

14. California-07—Rep. Ami Bera (D) is running for reelection
Redistricting and the march of demographic change outside Sacramento helped Bera capture the seat in 2012, but three Republicans are linking him to the president's health care law and arguing he's part of D.C.'s problems in trying to replace him. The GOP battle for the second general-election spot could get nasty, if history is any guide: Former Rep. Doug Ose's last race was a Republican primary brawl against fellow candidate Igor Birman's old boss, Rep. Tom McClintock.

Carlos Curbelo for Congress  

A Conservative Hispanic Republican for Congress

Carlos Curbelo for Congress

15. Florida-26—Rep. Joe Garcia (D) is running for reelection
Garcia is raising money hand-over-foot, but he's been dogged by a weird scandal (staffers of his plotted to fraudulently cast absentee ballots, apparently without the candidate's knowledge). Republican Carlos Curbelo could be a strong challenger. One underreported fact about this district: Garcia's 2012 victory is attributed to then-Rep. David Rivera's complete campaign meltdown amidst scandal but Obama's margin over Mitt Romney in the district was almost exactly the same as Garcia's over Rivera. Cuban-heavy Miami is experiencing something of a Democratic shift in national politics. GOP Gov. Rick Scott's approval could also be a problem for Republicans in the Sunshine State in November.

16. Illinois-13—Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is running for reelection
Davis has a March primary challenge, but that's not the obstacle here: He won one of the nation's tightest races—the closest one Democrats lost in 2012—against a perennial candidate, and Democrats have gotten behind former judge Ann Callis for a potentially stronger bid this time. Callis's long judicial tenure has left behind a record that the GOP is already picking away at, though.

17. Florida-02—Rep. Steve Southerland (R) is running for reelection
Democrats had another near-miss in the Florida Panhandle in 2012, though the path to victory here slopes steeply upward toward the end, Heartbreak Hill-style. As Stu Rothenberg has pointed out, the last couple of percentage points are a very difficult climb for Democrats in the 2nd District, though Gwen Graham's family name, connections, and lack of a political record make her a legit threat to Southerland, who hasn't always fundraised well.

General Election results 2012 - Michigan CD 1
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dan Benishek (Incumbent)	167,060	48.1%
	Democratic	Gary McDowell	165,179	47.6%
	Libertarian	Emily Salvette	10,630	3.1%
	Green	Ellis Boal	4,168	1.2%
Totals			347,037	100%
	Republican hold		Swing	{{{swing}}}

E

18. Michigan-01—Rep. Dan Benishek (R) is running for reelection
Benishek also struggled struggled with his campaign at times in the last few years, and polls consistently showed him mired in the low-40s in 2012 before he pulled out a narrow victory over repeat candidate Gary McDowell. Now, Democrats have a fresh face in local sheriff Jerry Cannon, who would have to overcome the Upper Peninsula's generically conservative tilt to win.

19. Florida-18—Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) is running for reelection
By the numbers, this race ought to go higher, with Romney having carried the district as Murphy just squeaked by controversial Rep. Allen West in 2012. But the GOP isn't so sure it has a marquee challenger here, and there's a reason why some Florida Republicans pined for former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, a prodigious fundraiser, last year. Then again, plenty of folks scoffed at Murphy's viability as he set out last cycle, too. No one will ever run away with this district, but Murphy's high fundraising and luck of the draw so far move him a bit further down the list.

20. California-36—Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) is running for reelection
Republicans identified a candidate here early: Assemblyman Brian Nestande is a veteran of the Bono political machine. But he's started slowly, especially on the fundraising front. The Palm Springs-based district is changing rapidly, which helped fuel Ruiz's unexpected victory last term and helped Obama actually perform slightly better here in 2012 than 2008 despite losing ground nationally. If Ruiz can hold his seat and give that change another couple of years, congressional Republicans may never get another chance to retake the 36th.


For the full story go to The National Journal.

California GOP Assemblyman Brian Nestande is in a tough race to retake a
seat the Republicans lost in the 2012 Obama landslide. 
Brian Nestande for Congress 

Palm Springs - The Key to Congress
The People's Republic of California is key to having a non-Marxist majority in the House of Representatives.  The Golden State currently sends 15 Republicans to the House (almost the entire GOP majority margin).  Just ten year ago Republicans had 20 to 24 seats.
.
The 36th District (map below) is an example of the failure of the Republican Party and Conservatism.  The district is based around solidly middle class communities like Palm Springs.  The GOP has lost middle class seat after middle class seat.  Simply, if the Republican platform is unable to win middle class districts then there is no future for the party.



California's 36th District
click to enlarge

Lesbian Cowboys and Holocaust Eroticism studied at Northwestern University

A World Gone Mad

• Back when the world was sane universities studied Plato, Socrates and Shakespeare.  Today the mental midget retards who claim to be professors push programs on Lesbian Cowboys and the “Violent Ethics of Whiteness.”

Professors and academics will discuss holocaust eroticism, lesbian cowboys, and the “Violent Ethics of Whiteness,” at the Modern Language Association’s (MLA) annual convention starting today.

Illinois' Northwestern University’s Phyllis Lassner, a writing professor, will present “Erotic Terror in Auschwitz: An American Tale,” on the 1994 novel The Kommandant’s Mistress, which depicts “an erotically violent relationship between a Jewish woman prisoner and an S.S. perpetrator born in Auschwitz and ending in the United States.”

The MLA, which is most notable for their widely used grammatical style guide, seeks to provide “opportunities for its members to share their scholarly findings and teaching experiences with colleagues and to discuss trends in the academy,” reports Campus Reform.

So-called "educators" are among the
most stupid people on earth.

The convention will run through Sunday, and a full program can be viewed online at their website.

Special focus will be given to the “Violent Ethics of Whiteness,” and “Teaching Racist Texts” which spotlights “engaging students in frank conversations about the racism inherent in much of American literature.”

Such racially themed discussions include “Beyond Huck and Pudd’nhead: Mark Twain and Race,” which will investigate “Constructing a Legacy of Whiteness in The Autobiography of Mark Twain,” “'Where You Gon Be Standin?': Spatial Logics, Civil Rights Discourse, and the Poetics of Black Lesbian Identity,” and “Interracial, Cross-Species, Cross Gender: The Political Value of Queer Coalition.”

The full discussion on the popular television show Girls, titled “Girls and the F Word: Twenty-First-Century Representations of Women's Lives” will have three sessions discussing “The Politics of Dressing and Nakedness,” dating, and “Popular Music and Issues of Identity” in the show.

Another popular discussion topic is queer themes in literature, including the panels "Lesbian Cowboys: Queering the Wild West through Blood Memory and Literary Activism,” “Is everything queer?,” “Between ‘Gay’ and ‘Queer’,” and “Wild, Queer, Vulnerable.”

Contemporary political issues will also be discussed at the convention, including “Beards and Breasts: The Performative Protest Politics of La Barbe and Femen,” and “The Literary Histories of Barack Obama's Dreams from My Father.”

The discussion topic “Literature and Life after Capitalism: Socialism, Barbarism, Communism, or Just More Capitalism?” will feature a “roundtable on literature, anti-capitalist activism, and projects of the future.”

Lesbian Cowboys
Sign up today for your Northwestern University seminar on "Lesbian Cowboys:
Queering the Wild West through Blood Memory and Literary Activism.”
.
How much a year are these assholes charging parents???  But worse, what kind of parent sends their kid here? 

 

Obama Judge Overturns Gun Sale Ban in Chicago

The Courts Work!

• Radio hosts like Mark Levin love to rip into the "evil" Federal Judges appointed for life.  Rants on the radio sell a lot of books.  But last year we saw a Democrat appointed Federal Judge rule against Obama having the power to jail Americans without a trial .  Now we have another Democrat judge appointed by Obama ruling in favor of the 2nd Amendment.  I suspect the Founders knew a lot better than Levin what was good for the Republic.  See our article Judge strikes down NDAA.

A Federal judge on Monday overturned Chicago’s ban on the sale and transfer of firearms, ruling that the city’s ordinances aimed at reducing gun violence are unconstitutional.

U.S. District Judge Edmond E. Chang said in his ruling that while the government has a duty to protect its citizens, it’s also obligated to protect constitutional rights, including the right to keep and bear arms for self-defense. However, Chang said he would temporarily stay the effects of his ruling, meaning the ordinances can stand while the city decides whether to appeal.

The decision is just the latest to attack what were some of the toughest gun-control laws in the nation. In 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Chicago’s long-standing gun ban. And last year, Illinois legislators were forced by a federal appeals court to adopt a law allowing residents to carry concealed weapons in Illinois, the only state that still banned the practice.

The resulting state law largely stripped city and officials of surrounding Cook County of their authority to regulate guns, which especially irked officials in Chicago, where residents had to apply for concealed-carry permits through the police chief.

National Rifle Association lobbyist Todd Vandermyde applauded Chang’s decision, saying the fact a federal judge appointed by President Barack Obama “ruled in favor of the Second Amendment, shows how out of step and outrageous Chicago’s ordinances really are.”

Chicago last year had more homicides than any city in the nation.


Read more: Politico.com

 

 

The Nation of Islam is getting farm subsidies

Your Tax Dollars at Work

Farm Subsidies Are Going to Groups in Urban Chicago

Between 2008 and 2011, the U.S. government awarded roughly $6.12 million in federal farm subsidies to several groups in the Chicago area, including a charity owned by Louis Farrakhan’s The Nation of Islam, according to a report released by government watchdog group Open the Books.

The report, titled “Farm Subsidies and the Big Dogs,” is based on data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture & information obtained through the Freedom of Information Act. The report examines total farm subsidies that have been paid into selected cities and urban areas.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, federal farm subsidies are being poured into several non-farming metropolitan areas, including New York City and Chicago, according to the report reports The Blaze.

Everyone wants to suck on the public teat.

Several entities in Chicago, for example, “receive the federal subsidies at their downtown loop office buildings or residential mansions,” the report reads. “Nearly every neighborhood in the city receives federal farm subsidy payments — including the Gold Coast, Downtown — Loop, Lincoln Park, and even the President’s neighbors in Hyde Park.”

A total of 930 entities in the Chicago area received farm subsidies between 2008 and 2011.

And as for the Louis Farrakhan group: Three Years Economic Savings, Inc., which is listed at his home address, received approximately $103,529 between 2008 and 2011, making it the 12th highest farm subsidy recipient in the Chicago area.

The group also received a $26,357 “commodity loan” during the Bush administration “to improve & stabilize farm income, assist with a better balance between supply and demand of the commodities,” the report notes.  This loan was signed on Nov., 17, 2008.

“(F)arm subsidies today have nothing to do with ‘preserving the family farm,’” the report reads, adding that small family farms between 2008 and 2011 received only a small fraction of federal subsidies.

 

“Wealthy investors have piggy-backed on a growing government program and made the largess of farm subsidies part of their investment portfolio. Many of these wealthy investors don’t live in ‘rural areas,’ but instead utilize ‘farm managers’ and taxpayer dollars to maximize return on their ‘farm’ investments,” the report notes.

A map showing just some of the locations in the city
of Chicago receiving farm subsidies.

(Source: Open the Books)

Illinois: Common Core lesson requires parents to self-identify as Liberal or Conservative

"Tell us about your parent's politics."

• The unconstitutional Federal intrusion into local education now includes telling unionized teachers on the government payroll about the politics of the parents of school children.
• Keep in mind, the massive and bloated Big Brother Department of "Approved" Education has been fully funded by both the "Liberal" Democrat Senate and the "Conservative" GOP House since 1979.  Big Brother centralized control of schools is bi-partisan.

An assignment sent home from an Oak Forest, IL high school government class is raising eyebrows among parents who are shocked by the questionnaire they and their children are required to fill out.

The questionnaire has the parents identify their positions on a number of highly-charged issues, and then places them on a “political spectrum.”

The survey is from the textbook “U.S. Government 2“, published by the “The Center for Learning”. It is part of Oak Forest High School’s Common Core curriculum, which according to the school district’s website is to …”provide a consistent, clear understanding of what students are expected to learn, so teachers and parents know what they need to do to help them,” reports the Illinois Review.

In Stage 1 of this particular unit, students are to match political philosophies with political parties, debate a political/social/economic issue from their viewpoint on the political spectrum and identify the viewpoint of a social issue on that spectrum.

In Stage 2, the students are to conduct a "Political Spectrum Interview" (questionnaire above) "...with someone 40 years old or older." The specific curriculum instructions are as follows:

"Nearly all children nowadays were horrible. What was worst of all was that by means of such organizations as the Spies they were systematically turned into ungovernable little savages, and yet this produced in them no tendency whatever to rebel against the discipline of the Party. On the contrary, they adored the Party and everything connected with it... All their ferocity was turned outwards, against the enemies of the State, against foreigners, traitors, saboteurs, thought-criminals. It was almost normal for people over thirty to be frightened of their own children."
  George Orwell
1984, Book 1, Chapter 2