It's Marx vs. Conservatism
If the Democrats win the House plan on the US becoming
a one-party People's Republic like Venezuela
Democrats look very unlikely to pick up the 17 seats they would need to retake the House majority, and they could lose seats.
At the six year mark for an incumbent President the opposition party has
picked up 30 seats on average in the House. From my viewpoint that projection is too high for 2014. I think a 20 seat GOP pick up in closer.
Let's begin with the top ten congressional districts most likely to flip from one party to the other this November according to the
National Journal:
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GOP Mayor Mia Love
The #1 Republican pick-up in the US |
1. Utah-04—Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is retiringNothing is certain in politics, but Matheson's retirement basically cedes the seat to Republicans. Without his brand name, it's very difficult to imagine a Democrat overcoming the party's poor performance levels in this state and district. (President Obama just cleared 30 percent here in 2012, making it his 25th-worst district in the country.) Repeat GOP candidate
Mia Love, who would be the first African-American Republican woman in Congress if she won, is now the biggest early favorite to become a House freshman in 2015, though Matheson's decision could spur some more GOP interest in the seat.
2. California-31—Rep. Gary Miller (R) is running for reelectionMiller is only in Congress right now thanks to a series of post-redistricting flukes, the biggest of which was a split Democratic vote allowing another Republican to sneak through California's top-two primary alongside Miller last cycle. The party isn't unified—the DCCC is backing Pete Aguilar, EMILY's List is behind Eloise Gomez Reyes, and former Rep. Joe Baca still has some support—but it's very hard to envision another repeat failure here, given the San Bernardino district's liberal lean (57 percent support for Obama in 2012).
3. Florida-13—Vacant: Rep. Bill Young (R) died in OctoberYoung kept this district safely Republican even as the political terrain shifted underneath him over 40-plus years, to the point where President Obama carried it twice. Without Young to defend the seat, it is a prime Democratic pickup opportunity in a March special election and in Novemeber thereafter. Democrats' last gubernatorial nominee, Alex Sink, moved into to the district she carried in 2010, cleared the field, and just reported raising over $1 million in 2 months. Meanwhile, Republicans David Jolly and Kathleen Peters are fighting an increasingly nasty primary, and party members worry about the district, despite the opportunity to test-drive new Obamacare attacks in the special election.
4. Iowa-03—Rep. Tom Latham (R) is retiringStop us if you've heard this song before, but without Latham—a strong campaigner, from his local reputation to his fundraising ability—it will be much, much harder for Republicans to hold this Des Moines-based seat in 2014. Obama carried it in 2012, and Democratic state Sen. Staci Appel is going to have a big head start on whoever jumps in. But on the flip side, there may be additional Democratic interest here now that Latham is out of the way. Republican Senate candidate David Young, who has a preexisting federal campaign already going, just jumped at the chance to run here instead, and about a dozen Republicans in all have expressed interest in the seat.
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GOP Mayor Steve Logan racked up a respectable 44% of the vote for
the New Jersey Senate seat election in 2013. Logan is now running
for the New Jersey 3 House seat. |
5. New Jersey-03—Rep. Jon Runyan (R) is retiringRepublicans have held this seat for most of the past few decades despite a Democratic lean in presidential politics, and Runyan won reelection easily in 2012 even as President Obama carried the South Jersey district. But the GOP doesn't have an incumbent on the ballot to protect the seat this year, giving Democrats a golden opportunity to try and realign the district. The DCCC is already lined up behind local officeholder Aimee Belgard, while a number of Republicans are talking to the district's powerful county party chairs about making their own bids. The GOP's controversial nominee in last year's Senate special election against Cory Booker,
Steve Lonegan, has said he'll run in the district, though he is not from there. That Republican primary will be one of several that electability-minded party members worry about this year.
6. Virginia-10—Rep. Frank Wolf (R) is retiringLike his longtime colleague Bill Young, Wolf kept his seat perfectly safe despite big changes in local political leanings during his career. Now that Wolf is retiring, Democrats have a real opportunity to take advantage of those changes, which made the 10th District one of the closest in the 2012 presidential race. The GOP has a deep bench of potential candidates in the suburbs outside D.C., but some strategists are concerned the party will choose to nominate its standard bearer via a convention instead of a primary, heightening the chances of getting an unelectable nominee. We're defying other prognosticators here a bit, and this open seat is more Republican-leaning than the others. But open seats are by their nature more volatile than races with incumbents, and this district is too closely divided to bump down the list. The other open seats (like Montana's at-large district) lean much further toward one party or the other, meaning we will need more time to assess their competitiveness.
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Republican Martha McSally lost her race for the House by
only 3,000 votes out of 292,000 cast. |
7. Arizona-02—Rep. Ron Barber (D) is running for reelectionBarber almost lost in 2012 under unusual circumstances. Special election victors rarely a regular election just months later, but Barber trailed Republican
Martha McSally on November's election night before eking out a slim victory thanks to a big edge in provisional ballots and early votes. Now McSally—who has a great story to tell as the nation's first female combat pilot—is off and running again, and though she has to clear a primary, Barber has his work cut out protecting a seat Republicans have carried in three straight presidential contests.
8. North Carolina-07—Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) is running for reelectionJust 654 votes separated McIntyre and state Sen. David Rouzer in 2012, the closest margin of any House race in the nation. Rouzer is back for another bid in this very conservative district, and it's a bit early to tell what kind of comeback he's putting together. Neither candidate's fundraising has blown anyone away, though Rouzer has put together a more well-organized campaign more quickly this time around.
9. West Virginia-03—Rep. Nick Rahall (D) is running for reelectionRahall has outrun the political change in West Virginia so far, but Obama's dire approval ratings here are dangerous for the veteran incumbent. Republican groups are already pouring money into the seat: This district saw the most TV spending of any 2014 House race in the off-year, including an ad from Democrats' House Majority PAC seeking to offset the tide of conservative outside money. Meanwhile, Republicans have a candidate who personifies what's been going on in West Virginia: State Sen. Evan Jenkins was a Democrat until July, when he switched parties and announced his candidacy.
10. Arizona-01—Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is running for reelectionThis massive Eastern Arizona district skews conservative, but Kirkpatrick proved a good fit for it last cycle, even though her staunch support for Obamacare puts her at odds with many residents. Now, three Republicans, including state House Speaker Andy Tobin, are vying to win it back. They are already trading accusations about insufficient conservatism, which will bear watching up to Arizona's late primary. One more thing to keep an eye out for throughout Arizona and here especially: Kirkpatrick won her second non-consecutive term with fewer than 50 percent of the vote as a libertarian candidate carried thousands of third-party votes. The GOP-controlled state legislature passed a law this year
making ballot access for third-party candidates more difficult to prevent such scenarios, but it isn't in effect yet pending a popular referendum. Third-party candidates could again play a role in the outcome here.
See more at The Wire.Crooked Bullshit Department
Once again a GOP controlled legislature is playing their neo-Fascist games and trying
to remove smaller opposition political parties from the ballot.
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Aside from being corrupt, the small brained Arizona GOP did not think things through. Libertarians are often pro-drug legalization and pro-choice. Taking them off the ballot might just add votes to the Democrat as it did in the Virginia Lt. Governor's race.
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| Arizona’s 1st congressional district election, 2012 |
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
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| Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick | 122,774 | 48.79% | +0.91% |
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| Republican | Jonathan Paton | 113,594 | 45.14% | -4.56% |
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| Libertarian | Kim Allen | 15,227 | 6.05% | -0.45% |
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| Turnout | 251,595 | | |
| Democratic hold | Swing | | |
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D
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Bullshit Corruption
Republican legislators in California, Arizona, Montana, Ohio and other states have worked to rig elections in their favor by passing laws effectively removing smaller opposition political parties from the ballot. Freedom is vanishing in America as voters are having their choices taken away from them on election day.
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See our stories:
Ohio GOP tries to rig the 2014 elections
and
The GOP looks to rig Montana's elections |
